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Exam 4: Forecasting

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Question 61

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Simple ________ forecasts only work well if we can assume that market demands will stay fairly steady over time.

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Question 62

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Yamaha manufactures which set of products with complementary demands to address seasonal variations?

A) golf clubs and skis
B) swimming suits and winter jackets
C) jet skis and snowmobiles
D) pianos and guitars
E) ice skates and water skis

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Question 63

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Suppose that the last four months of sales were 8,10,15,and 9 units,respectively.Suppose further that the last four forecasts were 5,6,11,and 12 units,respectively.What is the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) of these forecasts?

A(n)________ forecast uses an average of the most recent periods of data to forecast the next period.

A management analyst is using exponential smoothing to predict merchandise returns at an upscale branch of a department store chain.Given an actual number of returns of 154 items in the most recent period completed,a forecast of 172 items for that period,and a smoothing constant of 0.3,what is the forecast for the next period? How would the forecast be changed if the smoothing constant were 0.6? Explain the difference in terms of alpha and responsiveness.

A skeptical manager asks what short-range forecasts can be used for.Give her three possible uses/purposes.

The tracking signal is the:

Short-range forecasts tends to ________ longer-range forecasts.

A forecasting method has produced the following over the past five months.What is the mean absolute deviation?

A naïve forecast for September sales of a product would be equal to the forecast for August.

Focus forecasting tries a variety of computer models and selects the best one for a particular application.

The ________ measures the strength of the relationship between two variables.

Which of the following most requires long-range forecasting (as opposed to short-range or medium-range forecasting) for its planning purposes?

A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three years' accumulation of data.The three previous July values were 110,135,and 130.The average over all months is 160.What is the approximate seasonal index for July?

Describe three popular measures of forecast accuracy.

The last four weekly values of sales were 80,100,105,and 90 units,respectively.The last four forecasts (for the same four weeks)were 60,80,95,and 75 units,respectively.Calculate the MAD,MSE,and MAPE for these four weeks.

The larger the number of periods in the simple moving average forecasting method,the greater the method's responsiveness to changes in demand.

The quarterly "make meeting" of Lexus dealers is an example of a sales force composite forecast.

Computer monitoring of tracking signals and self-adjustment if a signal passes a preset limit is characteristic of:

In time series,which of the following cannot be predicted?