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Exam 4: Forecasting

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Question 21

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________ forecasts are concerned with rates of technological progress, which can result in the birth of exciting new products, requiring new plants and equipment.

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Question 22

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A small family-owned restaurant uses a seven-day moving average model to determine manpower requirements. These forecasts need to be seasonalized because each day of the week has its own demand pattern. The seasonal indices for each day of the week are: Monday 0.445; Tuesday 0.791; Wednesday 0.927; Thursday 1.033; Friday 1.422; Saturday 1.478; and Sunday 0.903. Average daily demand based on the most recent moving average is 194 patrons. What is the seasonalized forecast for each day of next week?

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The average value multiplied by each day...

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Question 23

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A naive forecast for September sales of a product would be equal to the sales in August.

A forecasting method has produced the following over the past five months. What is the mean absolute deviation?

Forecasts used for new product planning, capital expenditures, facility location or expansion, and R&D typically utilize a:

Demand for a certain product is forecast to be 8,000 units per month, averaged over all 12 months of the year. The product follows a seasonal pattern, for which the January monthly index is 1.25. What is the seasonally-adjusted sales forecast for January?

A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three years' accumulation of data. The three previous July values were 110, 135, and 130. The average over all months is 110. What is the approximate seasonal index for July?

________ is a time-series forecasting method that fits a trend line to a series of historical data points and then projects the line into the future for forecasts.

Which of the following statements about time-series forecasting is TRUE?

A naive forecast for September sales of a product would be equal to the forecast for August.

Which time-series model uses BOTH past forecasts and past demand data to generate a new forecast?

________ is a forecasting technique based upon salespersons' estimates of expected sales.

The forecasting technique that pools the opinions of a group of experts or managers is known as:

What is a time-series forecasting model?

________ expresses the error as a percent of the actual values.

Many services maintain records of sales noting:

Computer monitoring of tracking signals and self-adjustment if a signal passes a preset limit is characteristic of:

A firm has modeled its experience with industrial accidents and found that the number of accidents per year (y-hat) is related to the number of employees (x) by the regression equation: y-hat = 3.3 + 0.049x. The r-squared value is 0.68. The regression is based on 20 annual observations. The firm intends to employ 480 workers next year. How many accidents do you project? How much confidence do you have in that forecast?

Jim's department at a local department store has tracked the sales of a product over the last ten weeks. Forecast demand using exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.3, and an initial forecast of 30.0 for period 1. Calculate the MAD covering periods 2-10. Calculate the tracking signal covering periods 2-10. What do you recommend?

Demand for a certain product is forecast to be 800 units per month, averaged over all 12 months of the year. The product follows a seasonal pattern, for which the January monthly index is 0.8. What is the seasonally-adjusted sales forecast for January?