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Exam 4: Forecasting

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Question 51

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A measure of forecast error that does not depend upon the magnitude of the item being forecast is the ________.

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mean absol...

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Question 52

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Forecasts of individual products tend to be less accurate than forecasts of product families.

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Question 53

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Which of the following is NOT a characteristic of exponential smoothing?

For a given product demand, the time-series trend equation is 53 - 4x. The negative sign on the slope of the equation:

________ forecasting tries a variety of computer models and selects the best one for a particular application.

Describe the three forecasting time horizons and their use.

Which of the following values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the QUICKEST to changes in demand data?

Given the following data, calculate the five-year moving averages for years 6 through 10.

The department manager using a combination of methods has forecast sales of toasters at a local department store. Calculate the MAPE for the manager's forecast. Compare the manager's forecast against a naive forecast covering the same time period. Which is better?

What is a tracking signal? Explain the connection between adaptive smoothing and tracking signals.

A good tracking signal has no positive or negative error.

A forecast with a time horizon of about 3 months to 3 years is typically called a:

What is focus forecasting?

A good tracking signal has about as much positive error as it has negative error.

What is the forecast for May using a four-month moving average?

The quarterly "make meeting" of Lexus dealers is an example of a sales force composite forecast.

Weekly sales of copy paper at Cubicle Suppliers are provided in the table below. Compute a three-period moving average and a four-period moving average for weeks 5, 6, and 7. Compute the MAD for both forecasting methods. Which model is more accurate? Forecast week 8 with the more accurate method. Week Sales (cases) 1 17 2 21 3 26 4 18 5 29 6 17 7 21

A trend projection equation with a slope of 0.78 means that there is a 0.78 unit rise in Y per period.

Use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment to forecast deliveries for period 10. Let alpha = 0.4, beta = 0.2, and let the initial trend value be 4 and the initial forecast be 200.

A management analyst is using exponential smoothing to predict merchandise returns at an upscale branch of a department store chain. Given an actual number of returns of 154 items in the most recent period completed, a forecast of 172 items for that period, and a smoothing constant of 0.3, what is the forecast for the next period? How would the forecast be changed if the smoothing constant were 0.6? Explain the difference in terms of alpha and responsiveness.