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Exam 10: Forecasting Techniques

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Question 31

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Write a short note on indicators and indexes used in forecasting.

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Indicators are measures that are believe...

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Question 32

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Use the data given below to answer the following question(s) . The details of the clock sales at a supermarket for the past 6 weeks are shown in the table below.The time series appears to be relatively stable, without trend, seasonal, or cyclical effects.The simple moving average value of k is set at 2. $\begin{array}{|c|c|}\hline \text { Week } & \text { Units sold } \\\hline 1 & 88 \\\hline 2 & 44 \\\hline 3 & 54 \\\hline 4 & 65 \\\hline 5 & 72 \\\hline 6 & 85 \\\hline\end{array}$ -For the given data, what is the value of the simple moving average mean square error?

A) 0.21
B) 20.12
C) 14.25
D) 207.13

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Question 33

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Indicators are measures that are believed to influence the behavior of a variable an individual wishes to forecast.

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s) . The table provided below gives the sales details of the number of android smart phones at an electronic retail store for the past 6 weeks.The time series appears to be relatively stable, without trend, seasonal, or cyclical effects.The value of k is set at 3.(Hint: Optimize α value.) $\begin{array}{|c|c|}\hline \text { Week } & \text { Units sold } \\\hline 1 & 88 \\\hline 2 & 44 \\\hline 3 & 54 \\\hline 4 & 65 \\\hline 5 & 72 \\\hline 6 & 85 \\\hline\end{array}$ -What is the forecasted value for the 7th week?

In forecasting, what is an index?

The indexes in the forecasting indicators provide a complete forecast.

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s) . The worldwide sales of cars from 1981-1990 are shown in the table below.Given: α = 0.2 and γ = 0.05.(Hint: Use XLMiner) . $\begin{array}{|c|c|}\hline \text { Year } & \begin{array}{c}\text { Units sold in } \\\text { thousands }\end{array} \\\hline 1 & 750 \\\hline 2 & 823 \\\hline 3 & 1034 \\\hline 4 & 1945 \\\hline 5 & 1556 \\\hline 6 & 1300 \\\hline 7 & 1346 \\\hline 8 & 1150 \\\hline 9 & 967 \\\hline 10 & 1200 \\\hline\end{array}$ -Determine the value of the mean absolute deviation using the Holt-Winters no-trend model for the given data.

What is simple exponential smoothing?

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s) . The table provided below gives the sales details of the number of android smart phones at an electronic retail store for the past 6 weeks.The time series appears to be relatively stable, without trend, seasonal, or cyclical effects.The value of k is set at 3.(Hint: Optimize α value.) $\begin{array}{|c|c|}\hline \text { Week } & \text { Units sold } \\\hline 1 & 88 \\\hline 2 & 44 \\\hline 3 & 54 \\\hline 4 & 65 \\\hline 5 & 72 \\\hline 6 & 85 \\\hline\end{array}$ -Calculate the value of the mean absolute percentage error for the given data.

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s) . The worldwide sales of cars from 1981-1990 are shown in the table below.Given: α = 0.2 and γ = 0.05.(Hint: Use XLMiner) . $\begin{array}{|c|c|}\hline \text { Year } & \begin{array}{c}\text { Units sold in } \\\text { thousands }\end{array} \\\hline 1 & 750 \\\hline 2 & 823 \\\hline 3 & 1034 \\\hline 4 & 1945 \\\hline 5 & 1556 \\\hline 6 & 1300 \\\hline 7 & 1346 \\\hline 8 & 1150 \\\hline 9 & 967 \\\hline 10 & 1200 \\\hline\end{array}$ -If the given time series has a trend and no seasonality, the most appropriate forecasting model to determine the forecast of the time series is the ________ model.

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s) . The worldwide sales of cars from 1981-1990 are shown in the table below.Given: α = 0.2 and β = 0.15 (Hint: Use XLMiner) $\begin{array}{|c|c|}\hline \text { Year } & \begin{array}{c}\text { Units sold in } \\\text { thousands }\end{array} \\\hline 1981 & 888 \\\hline 1982 & 900 \\\hline 1983 & 1000 \\\hline 1984 & 1200 \\\hline 1985 & 1100 \\\hline 1986 & 1300 \\\hline 1987 & 1250 \\\hline 1988 & 1150 \\\hline 1989 & 1100 \\\hline 1990 & 1200 \\\hline\end{array}$ -Calculate the value of the mean absolute percentage error using double exponential smoothing for the given data.

Use the data given below to answer the following question(s) . The worldwide sales of cars from 1981-1990 are shown in the table below.Given: α = 0.2 and β = 0.15 (Hint: Use XLMiner) $\begin{array}{|c|c|}\hline \text { Year } & \begin{array}{c}\text { Units sold in } \\\text { thousands }\end{array} \\\hline 1981 & 888 \\\hline 1982 & 900 \\\hline 1983 & 1000 \\\hline 1984 & 1200 \\\hline 1985 & 1100 \\\hline 1986 & 1300 \\\hline 1987 & 1250 \\\hline 1988 & 1150 \\\hline 1989 & 1100 \\\hline 1990 & 1200 \\\hline\end{array}$ -Identify the value of the mean square error using double exponential smoothing for the given set of data.

Use the data shown below to answer the following question(s). The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1946-1956. $\begin{array}{c|c}\text { Year } & \begin{array}{c}\text { Real Home Price } \\\text { Index }\end{array} \\\hline 1946 & 106.5058955 \\\hline 1947 & 109.3296707 \\\hline 1948 & 101.2225795 \\\hline 1949 & 100.0466076 \\\hline 1950 & 105.8948393 \\\hline 1951 & 103.8986687 \\\hline 1952 & 103.9743275 \\\hline 1953 & 114.7133093 \\\hline 1954 & 114.199126 \\\hline 1955 & 115.4621261 \\\hline 1956 & 115.3166155\end{array}$ -Setting k = 3, determine the value of mean absolute percentage of error.

Explain the significance of using double moving average and double exponential smoothing models.

Identify the formula used to calculate the root mean square error over a range of forecasted values, if the actual value of the time series at time t and the forecast value for time t are denoted by At and Ft respectively.