Question 1

The sample standard deviation of forecast error is estimated by the square root of MSE.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

The two most important factors in choosing a forecasting technique are:

Accepted Answer

A)  cost and time horizon.
B)  accuracy and time horizon.
C)  cost and accuracy.
D)  quantity and quality.
E)  objective and subjective components.

Question 3

Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data:

What is this week's forecast using a three-week simple moving average?

Accepted Answer

A)  49
B)  50
C)  52
D)  65
E)  78

Question 4

Use of simple linear regression analysis assumes that:

Accepted Answer

A)  variations around the line are nonrandom.
B)  deviations around the line are normally distributed.
C)  predictions can easily be made beyond the range of observed values of the predictor variable.
D)  all possible predictor variables are included in the model.
E)  the variance of error terms (deviations) varies directly with the predictor variable.

Question 5

Which is not a characteristic of exponential smoothing?

Accepted Answer

A)  smoothes random variations in the data
B)  weights each historical value equally
C)  has an easily altered weighting scheme
D)  has minimal data storage requirements
E)  smoothes real variations in the data

Question 6

Given forecast errors of 5, 0,−4, and 3, what is the tracking signal?

Accepted Answer

A)  3
B)  1.33
C)  4
D)  12
E)  0.75

Question 7

Which of the following would be an advantage of using a sales force composite to develop a demand forecast?

Accepted Answer

A)  The sales staff is least affected by changing customer needs.
B)  The sales force can easily distinguish between customer desires and probable actions.
C)  The sales staff is often aware of customers' future plans.
D)  Salespeople are least likely to be influenced by recent events.
E)  Salespeople are least likely to be biased by sales quotas.

Question 8

Gradual, long-term movement in time series data is called:

Accepted Answer

A)  seasonal variation.
B)  cycles.
C)  irregular variation.
D)  trend.
E)  random variation.

Question 9

Which of the following corresponds to the predictor variable in simple linear regression?

Accepted Answer

A)  regression coefficient
B)  dependent variable
C)  independent variable
D)  predicted variable
E)  demand coefficient

Question 10

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data:

What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.5, if the forecast for two years ago was 16,000?

Accepted Answer

A)  18,750
B)  19,500
C)  21,000
D)  22,650
E)  22,800

Question 11

The shorter the forecast period, the more accurately the forecasts tend to track what actually happens.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 12

The purpose of the forecast should be established first so that the level of detail, amount of resources, and accuracy level can be understood.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 13

The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's) demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data:

What is this month's forecast using the naive approach?

Accepted Answer

A)  100
B)  160
C)  130
D)  140
E)  120

Question 14

Which phrase most closely describes the Delphi technique?

Accepted Answer

A)  associative forecast
B)  consumer survey
C)  series of questionnaires
D)  developed in India
E)  historical data

Question 15

The Delphi approach involves the use of a series of questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 16

The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's) demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data:

What is this month's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

Accepted Answer

A)  1,250
B)  128.6
C)  102
D)  158
E)  164

Question 17

Which of the following would tend to decrease forecast accuracy?

Accepted Answer

A)  a reduction in demand variability
B)  a shortening of the forecast time horizon
C)  an attempt to forecast demand for a group of similar items rather than an individual item
D)  a change in the underlying causal system
E)  an increase in the flexibility of the production system

Question 18

For the data given below, what would the naive forecast be for period 5?

Accepted Answer

A)  58
B)  62
C)  59.5
D)  61
E)  cannot tell from the data given

Question 19

The primary method for associative forecasting is:

Accepted Answer

A)  sensitivity analysis.
B)  regression analysis.
C)  simple moving averages.
D)  centered moving averages.
E)  exponential smoothing.

Question 20

Which of the following changes would tend to shorten the time frame for short-term forecasting?

Accepted Answer

A)  bringing greater variety into the product mix
B)  increasing the flexibility of the production system
C)  ordering fewer weather-sensitive items
D)  adding more special-purpose equipment
E)  investing in the production system to make it more task-specific

Exam 3: Forecasting

Which is not a characteristic of exponential smoothing?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The purpose of the forecast should be established first so that the level of detail, amount of resources, and accuracy level can be understood.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's) demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data: What is this month's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Use of simple linear regression analysis assumes that:

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Which of the following would tend to decrease forecast accuracy?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The sample standard deviation of forecast error is estimated by the square root of MSE.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The two most important factors in choosing a forecasting technique are:

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

For the data given below, what would the naive forecast be for period 5?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's) demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data: What is this month's forecast using the naive approach?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data: What is this week's forecast using a three-week simple moving average?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Which of the following corresponds to the predictor variable in simple linear regression?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Given forecast errors of 5, 0,−4, and 3, what is the tracking signal?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data: What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.5, if the forecast for two years ago was 16,000?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The Delphi approach involves the use of a series of questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The shorter the forecast period, the more accurately the forecasts tend to track what actually happens.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The primary method for associative forecasting is:

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Gradual, long-term movement in time series data is called:

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Which phrase most closely describes the Delphi technique?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Which of the following changes would tend to shorten the time frame for short-term forecasting?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Which of the following would be an advantage of using a sales force composite to develop a demand forecast?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified