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Exam 4: Forecasting

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Question 31

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Increasing the number of periods in a moving average will accomplish greater smoothing, but at the expense of

A) manager understanding
B) accuracy
C) stability
D) responsiveness to changes
E) All of the above are diminished when the number of periods increases.

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Question 32

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A skeptical manager asks what short-range forecasts can be used for. Give her three possible uses/purposes.

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Any three of: planning purchas...

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Question 33

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What is a tracking signal? Explain the connection between adaptive smoothing and tracking signals.

__________ are useful if we can assume that market demands will stay fairly steady over time.

Which of the following values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to forecast errors?

Which time-series model below assumes that demand in the next period will be equal to the most recent period's demand?

If a barbershop operator noted that Tuesday's business was typically twice as heavy as Wednesday's, and that Friday's business was typically the busiest of the week, business at the barbershop is subject to __________.

__________ forecasts use a series of past data points to make a forecast.

Which of the following most requires long-range forecasting (as opposed to short-range or medium-range forecasting) for its planning purposes?

Give an example-other than a restaurant or other food-service firm-of an organization that experiences an hourly seasonal pattern. (That is, each hour of the day has a pattern that tends to repeat day after day.) Explain.

Which of the following statements comparing the weighted moving average technique and exponential smoothing is true?

Given an actual demand of 61, a previous forecast of 58, and an alpha of .3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

An innovative restaurateur owns and operates a dozen "Ultimate Low-Carb" restaurants in northern Arkansas. His signature item is a cheese-encrusted beef medallion wrapped in lettuce. Sales (X, in millions of dollars) is related to Profits (Y, in hundreds of thousands of dollars) by the regression equation Y = 8.21 + 0.76 X. What is your forecast of profit for a store with sales of $40 million? $50 million?

__________ expresses the error as a percent of the actual values, undistorted by a single large value.

What is a time-series forecasting model?

A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three years' accumulation of data. The three previous July values were 110, 135, and 130. The average over all months is 160. The approximate seasonal index for July is:

__________ forecasts address the business cycle by predicting inflation rates, money supplies, housing starts, and other planning indicators.

What is the difference between an associative model and a time-series model?

A six-month moving average forecast is generally better than a three-month moving average forecast if demand

A forecast with a time horizon of about 3 months to 3 years is typically called a