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Exam 4: Forecasting

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Question 41

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The following trend projection is used to predict quarterly demand: Y = 250 - 2.5t,where t = 1 in the first quarter.Seasonal (quarterly)indices are Quarter 1 = 1.5;Quarter 2 = 0.8;Quarter 3 = 1.1;and Quarter 4 = 0.6.What is the seasonally adjusted forecast for the next four quarters?

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Quarter Projection A...

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Question 42

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Demand (sales)forecasts serve as inputs to financial,marketing,and personnel planning.

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Question 43

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Forecasts are usually classified by time horizon into three categories

A restaurant has tracked the number of meals served at lunch over the last four weeks.The data shows little in terms of trends,but does display substantial variation by day of the week.Use the following information to determine the seasonal (daily)index for this restaurant.

The last four weekly values of sales were 80,100,105,and 90 units.The last four forecasts (for the same four weeks)were 60,80,95,and 75 units.Calculate MAD,MSE,and MAPE for these four weeks.

Forecasts used for new product planning,capital expenditures,facility location or expansion,and R&D typically utilize a

Seasonality is a data pattern that repeats itself after a period of days,weeks,months,or quarters.

A skeptical manager asks what short-range forecasts can be used for.Give her three possible uses/purposes.

Computer monitoring of tracking signals and self-adjustment if a signal passes a preset limit is characteristic of

________ expresses the error as a percent of the actual values,undistorted by a single large value.

Taco Bell's unique employee scheduling practices are partly the result of using

Increasing the number of periods in a moving average will accomplish greater smoothing,but at the expense of

Identify four components of a time series.Which one of these is rarely forecast? Why is this so?

A naïve forecast for September sales of a product would be equal to the forecast for August.

One advantage of exponential smoothing is the limited amount of record keeping involved.

________ forecasting tries a variety of computer models and selects the best one for a particular application.

Which of the following values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to forecast errors?

The last seven weeks of demand at a new car dealer are shown below.Use a three-period weighted-moving average to determine a forecast for the 8th week using weights of 1,2,and 3.Calculate the MAD for this forecast.What does the MAD indicate? Week Sales 1 25 2 30 3 27 4 31 5 27 6 29 7 30

The department manager using a combination of methods has forecast sales of toasters at a local department store.Calculate the MAD for the manager's forecast.Compare the manager's forecast against a naive forecast.Which is better?

Demand for a certain product is forecast to be 8,000 units per month,averaged over all 12 months of the year.The product follows a seasonal pattern,for which the January monthly index is 1.25.What is the seasonally-adjusted sales forecast for January?