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Exam 4: Forecasting

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Question 1

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Explain,in your own words,the meaning of the coefficient of determination.

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The coefficient of determinati...

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Question 2

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Increasing the number of periods in a moving average will accomplish greater smoothing,but at the expense of:

A) manager understanding.
B) accuracy.
C) stability.
D) sensitivity to real changes in the data.
E) All of the above are diminished when the number of periods increases.

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Question 3

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A skeptical manager asks what short-range forecasts can be used for.Give her three possible uses/purposes.

Time-series data may exhibit which of the following behaviors?

Which of the following techniques uses variables such as price and promotional expenditures,which are related to product demand,to predict demand?

What is a time-series forecasting model?

________ forecasts address the business cycle by predicting inflation rates,money supplies,housing starts,and other planning indicators.

Demand for a certain product is forecast to be 8,000 units per month,averaged over all 12 months of the year.The product follows a seasonal pattern,for which the January monthly index is 1.25.What is the seasonally-adjusted sales forecast for January?

What forecasting systems combine the intelligence of multiple supply chain partners?

For a given product demand,the time-series trend equation is 53 - 4x.The negative sign on the slope of the equation:

Identify the four components of a time series.Which one of these is rarely forecast? Why is this so?

One advantage of exponential smoothing is the limited amount of record keeping involved.

Taco Bell's unique employee scheduling practices are partly the result of using:

Weekly sales of ten-grain bread at the local organic food market are provided in the table below.Based on these data,forecast week 9 using a five-week moving average. Week Sales 1 415 2 389 3 420 4 382 5 410 6 432 7 405 8 421

What is a tracking signal? Explain the connection between adaptive smoothing and tracking signals.

Given forecast errors of -1,4,8,and -3,what is the mean absolute deviation?

List and briefly describe the three major types of forecasts that organizations use in planning future operations.

What does it mean to "decompose" a time series?

Weekly sales of copy paper at Cubicle Suppliers are provided in the table below.Compute a three-period moving average and a four-period moving average for weeks 5,6,and 7.Compute the MAD for both forecasting methods.Which model is more accurate? Forecast week 8 with the more accurate method. Week Sales (cases) 1 17 2 21 3 27 4 31 5 19 6 17 7 21

Forecasts used for new product planning,capital expenditures,facility location or expansion,and R&D typically utilize a: